The European Commission is preparing to turn its regulatory spotlight onto the cloud computing duopoly, with preliminary findings expected by June 2026 that could designate Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure as “gatekeepers” under the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The move, first signaled by EU insiders, would mark the most aggressive expansion yet of the bloc’s landmark competition regulation into enterprise infrastructure services, forcing the two dominant cloud providers to fundamentally change how they operate in the European market.
The DMA, which came into force in November 2022 and was first applied on 2 May 2023, arms the Commission with powers to ex ante regulate large platforms deemed to be gateways between businesses and consumers. To be classified as a gatekeeper, a company must have an annual turnover in the European Economic Area of at least €7.5 billion or a market capitalisation of €75 billion, operate a core platform service in at least three EU member states, and have more than 45 million monthly active end users and 10,000 yearly business users. The current list of designated gatekeepers and services includes Alphabet’s Google Search, YouTube, and Android; Apple’s iOS and App Store; Meta’s Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp; Amazon’s marketplace and advertising; ByteDance’s TikTok; and Microsoft’s Windows PC OS and LinkedIn. Noticeably absent so far have been the cloud infrastructure platforms—despite AWS and Azure each controlling roughly a third of the European cloud market in 2024, together holding a combined market share of over 60%.
The prospect of a June 2026 preliminary finding suggests the Commission is deep in an informal market investigation, collecting evidence on whether AWS and Azure meet the DMA thresholds for cloud computing as a core platform service. While neither company publicly discloses exact European user numbers for their cloud platforms, industry estimates indicate that millions of business users—from startups to public sector agencies—rely on AWS and Azure as essential infrastructure. A DMA designation would trigger a set of strict obligations: mandatory interoperability and data portability, a ban on self-preferencing of ancillary services, restrictions on bundling cloud products with identity management or productivity suites, and a prohibition on using data generated by business customers to compete against them.
What a Gatekeeper Tag Would Mean for AWS and Azure
For AWS, a DMA designation could dismantle its deeply integrated ecosystem. The company has built an unmatched catalog of over 200 services—from compute to machine learning—that are often optimised to work best together. A gatekeeper ruling might require AWS to offer equivalent performance and functionality to third-party services running on its infrastructure, prevent it from steering customers toward its own databases or analytics tools, and force it to let rivals access certain platform capabilities on equal terms. Moreover, AWS would have to allow business users to easily export their data and workload configurations to competitors without any technical or financial barriers. This directly challenges the “lock-in” strategy that has fuelled its growth.
Microsoft faces a different, but equally thorny, set of compliance hurdles. Azure is increasingly intertwined with Microsoft’s broader enterprise stack—Active Directory, Microsoft 365, Power Platform, and the Windows ecosystem. The DMA could compel Microsoft to unbundle Azure Active Directory authentication from other Azure services, allow third-party identity providers to integrate on par with Microsoft’s own, and stop using its desktop and productivity dominance to nudge customers toward Azure. One of the most contentious practices under review is Microsoft’s licensing changes in 2019 and 2022, which raised the cost of running Windows Server and Office on rival clouds like AWS and Google Cloud. EU regulators have been examining these policies, and a gatekeeper designation would likely outlaw them.
Both companies would also be required to establish independent compliance functions, submit to regular audits, and risk fines of up to 10% of global annual turnover for violations—which for Microsoft could exceed €16 billion based on its 2024 revenue.
Impact on the Windows Enterprise Ecosystem
For the millions of Windows-based businesses across Europe, the designation of Azure as a gatekeeper could be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it would likely lower barriers to multi-cloud strategies, letting IT leaders mix and match services from different providers without punitive licensing costs or technical friction. A mid-sized enterprise could, for example, host its domain controllers on AWS while still getting first-class authentication support, running Microsoft 365 with Google Cloud’s data analytics, and moving workloads between clouds with a few clicks. On the other hand, the unbundling and forced interoperability could introduce complexity for organisations that have standardised on the tight Azure-Microsoft 365 integration for simplicity. Some IT managers might find the new “open” landscape more difficult to manage, with more moving parts and potential compatibility snags.
Security could also become a talking point. Microsoft has long argued that deep integration between cloud services and identity management improves security posture. Under DMA constraints, it might have to allow third-party security tools to access telemetry and APIs at a level currently reserved for Defender for Cloud, which could weaken its holistic security story but spur innovation from European cybersecurity firms.
Competitive Landscape: A Boost for European Cloud Providers
The most immediate winners of a gatekeeper designation would be smaller cloud providers, particularly European champions like OVHcloud, Deutsche Telekom (T-Systems), SAP’s cloud division, and French startup Scaleway. They have long complained that AWS and Azure engage in unfair licensing practices, such as charging “taxes” for running Microsoft software on non-Azure infrastructure. In 2022, OVHcloud filed an antitrust complaint with the EU against Microsoft over its cloud licensing policies, and other European trade groups have echoed the call for DMA-style remedies.
If the DMA forces AWS and Azure to offer fair, non-discriminatory access to their platforms, smaller providers could integrate more seamlessly with the dominant clouds and compete on value rather than just being cheaper isolated islands. The DMA’s data portability requirements could also spark a new market for cloud migration tools and services, much like GDPR drove data management compliance.
Google Cloud—the distant third with around 10% market share in Europe—might also gain. The company has positioned itself as the open, multi-cloud alternative, and a DMA-mandated level playing field could validate that strategy. However, given Google’s own regulatory battles over its ad tech and search services, it may tread cautiously.
Industry Reactions and Lobbying Efforts
Unsurprisingly, both Amazon and Microsoft have lobbied hard against any expansion of the DMA to cloud services. Amazon argues that the cloud market is highly competitive and dynamic, citing the growing presence of Alphabet and the steady price wars among providers. It also points to the fact that AWS was not born out of an existing consumer monopoly—it grew by selling IT infrastructure to businesses, which are capable of making sophisticated purchasing decisions. Microsoft has emphasised that its cloud suite enables European companies to be more productive and secure, and that heavy-handed regulation could slow digital transformation in the region.
But the political winds in Brussels have shifted. Between 2023 and 2025, the Commission launched several non-compliance investigations into gatekeepers, and Commissioner Thierry Breton (before stepping down in late 2024) repeatedly hinted that cloud computing was “on the radar.” In early 2025, the EU’s digital chief Margrethe Vestager stated in a speech that “the next frontier for DMA enforcement is the enterprise stack,” though she did not name specific targets. Industry observers now believe that the Commission’s June 2026 timeline is part of a methodical effort to build an airtight case that can withstand the inevitable legal challenges.
The Road to June 2026 and Beyond
Designation isn’t immediate. The DMA envisions a process where the Commission first issues a formal “preliminary finding” that a company qualifies as a gatekeeper, giving it the opportunity to contest the conclusion. The target then has several months to respond and can request a hearing. Only after a final decision—which could come by end‑2026 or early 2027—would the clock start ticking for compliance. During that period, companies typically negotiate with the Commission on precise remedies, much as Apple and Google did for their mobile ecosystems.
For enterprise IT departments, the message is to start preparing for a possible shift. Strategic decisions made in 2025 and 2026 about cloud architecture, SaaS procurement, and data portability could pay dividends if the rules change. CIOs should audit current cloud contracts and licensing agreements, identifying any potential exposure to vendor lock‑in that the DMA might later unlock. Forward-thinking organisations might already seek out cloud‑agnostic tools and platforms to increase their bargaining power.
The June 2026 deadline also aligns with the EU’s broader digital sovereignty push. The European Alliance for Industrial Data, Edge and Cloud has been funding research into open‑source cloud stacks and the GAIA‑X federation, all aimed at reducing dependence on US hyperscalers. A gatekeeper designation for AWS and Azure would be the most powerful statement yet that the EU intends to reshape enterprise computing according to its own rules.
As the countdown to summer 2026 begins, the cloud industry is holding its breath. Whether the Commission ultimately pulls the trigger will depend on the evidence it can muster—and on the political willingness to confront two of America’s most valuable tech giants. For now, the message from Brussels is unmistakable: even the cloud is not above European competition law.