Global PC shipments rose in the first quarter of 2026, but that does not mean the market is healthy. Counterpoint Research’s data points to a 3.2% year-over-year increase to about 63.3 million units, driven largely by businesses and consumers scrambling to migrate from Windows 10 before its end-of-support deadline in October 2025. The numbers look positive on the surface, but beneath them, two serious threats are brewing: rising memory costs linked to AI demand, and the impending exhaustion of the Windows 10 upgrade cycle.

The Windows 10 Migration Surge

The primary driver behind Q1 2026’s shipment growth is the Windows 10 to Windows 11 transition. With Microsoft’s extended support for Windows 10 ending in October 2025, enterprises and individuals have been upgrading their hardware at an accelerated pace. Counterpoint notes that commercial PC replacements accounted for a significant portion of the uptick, as IT departments rushed to deploy Windows 11-compatible machines before the deadline. This surge has temporarily boosted shipment numbers, but it is not a sign of sustained demand.

Consumer upgrades also played a role, albeit smaller. Many Windows 10 users held off purchasing new PCs until the final months before support ended, resulting in a late-cycle bump. However, this pent-up demand is now largely satisfied. Counterpoint’s analysts caution that the migration-driven boost will fade by the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a sharp decline in shipments once the upgrade wave passes.

AI Memory Costs: A Looming Threat

A more worrying trend is the rising cost of DRAM and NAND flash memory, driven by the AI boom. AI workloads, both in data centers and on-device, require massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and fast storage. This has led to a global shortage of memory components, pushing up prices for PC manufacturers. Counterpoint reports that DRAM contract prices increased by 15–20% in Q1 2026 compared to the same period last year, while NAND prices rose 10–15%.

For PC makers, these cost increases are squeezing margins. Some have already passed on the higher costs to consumers, with average selling prices (ASPs) rising 5–8% for mainstream laptops and desktops. Others have absorbed the increase to remain competitive, but that strategy is unsustainable. If memory prices continue to climb—and the AI demand shows no signs of abating—PCs could become significantly more expensive later this year.

This is particularly problematic because the Windows 10 migration is price-sensitive. Many businesses and consumers are budget-conscious, especially in a still-recovering global economy. Higher PC prices could deter upgrades, leading to a longer tail of Windows 10 holdouts—users who either pay for extended security updates or risk using an unsupported OS.

The Post-Migration Slump

Counterpoint’s data also highlights a structural issue: the PC market has become overly reliant on replacement cycles. The pandemic-era boom in 2020–2021 saw a massive wave of new PC purchases for remote work and schooling. Those machines are now approaching the end of their useful lives, creating a natural replacement cycle that aligns with the Windows 10 deadline. But once that cycle completes, the market faces a vacuum.

Without a compelling new use case—such as a killer app for AI PCs or a major OS refresh—shipments are likely to decline. The industry is already seeing this in the tablet and smartphone markets, where longer replacement cycles have led to stagnant sales. PCs could follow the same trajectory.

AI PCs: Hype vs. Reality

Manufacturers have been betting on AI PCs—machines with dedicated neural processing units (NPUs) for on-device AI tasks—to drive the next upgrade wave. Microsoft’s Copilot+ PC initiative, launched in 2024, aimed to make AI a core selling point. However, adoption has been slow. Counterpoint estimates that AI-capable PCs accounted for only 12% of shipments in Q1 2026, up from 8% a year earlier but far below expectations.

The problem is twofold. First, compelling AI applications that require local NPUs remain scarce. Most users interact with AI via cloud services like ChatGPT or Microsoft Copilot, which don’t need powerful on-device hardware. Second, AI PCs command a premium of $150–$300 over standard models, making them a tough sell for cost-conscious buyers.

Memory costs exacerbate this. AI PCs typically require more RAM (16GB or 32GB) and faster storage to run models locally, further increasing their price. As DRAM and NAND costs rise, the price gap widens, making AI PCs even less attractive.

Regional Variations

The Q1 2026 shipment growth was not uniform. The Americas and Europe saw the strongest gains, driven by enterprise Windows 10 migrations. In contrast, Asia-Pacific (excluding China) experienced only modest growth, as many markets there are still transitioning from older Windows versions. China itself was a mixed bag: government procurement policies boosted some segments, but consumer demand remained weak due to economic uncertainty.

Notably, the education sector, which drove significant PC purchases during the pandemic, is now a drag on the market. Many school districts have completed their device rollouts and are now in a maintenance phase, buying fewer new units.

What This Means for Windows Users

For Windows users, the Q1 2026 numbers have direct implications. If you are still on Windows 10, the clock is ticking. Microsoft’s end-of-support means no more security updates after October 2025 unless you pay for the Extended Security Updates (ESU) program, which costs $61 per device in the first year and doubles each subsequent year. Upgrading to a new PC now—before memory costs push prices higher—might be the most cost-effective move.

However, if you already have a Windows 11-compatible PC, there is little reason to upgrade just for AI features. The current crop of AI PCs offers marginal benefits for most users, and the price premium is hard to justify. Waiting for the second generation of AI hardware, which may offer better performance and lower costs, could be wiser.

The Road Ahead

The PC market is at a crossroads. The Windows 10 migration is a temporary tailwind, but the headwinds from rising memory costs and a lack of compelling new features are strong. Counterpoint’s forecast for the rest of 2026 is cautious: they expect shipments to decline in Q3 and Q4 as the upgrade wave fades, with full-year shipments possibly flat or slightly down.

To reignite growth, the industry needs more than just AI buzzwords. It needs practical, everyday applications that leverage local AI processing—something that has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, memory costs will likely remain elevated as long as AI demand drives investment in HBM and other high-end memory products.

For consumers, the message is clear: if you need a new PC, buy now before prices rise further. If you can wait, do so until the market stabilizes and AI PCs mature. The Q1 2026 shipment numbers are a false dawn—a temporary spike in a market that is fundamentally struggling.

Key Takeaways

  • Q1 2026 PC shipments rose 3.2% YoY to 63.3 million units, driven by Windows 10 migration.
  • DRAM and NAND prices are up 15–20% and 10–15% respectively due to AI demand, raising PC costs.
  • AI PC adoption remains low at 12% of shipments, with limited killer apps.
  • The post-migration period could see a significant shipment decline later in 2026.
  • Windows 10 users should consider upgrading soon to avoid higher prices and security risks.