HP has put a number on the Windows 10 migration gap: 30 percent of its PC installed base still runs the older operating system, HP CFO Karen Parkhill told investors during the company’s May 2026 earnings call. The disclosure lands eight months after Microsoft ended mainstream support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, and it signals that the final cohort of users—both businesses and consumers—are moving slowly, often because their hardware cannot meet Windows 11’s strict security requirements.

The figure, as first reported by ExtremeTech, applies only to HP’s own worldwide fleet of devices in active use, not the entire Windows ecosystem. But HP’s footprint is large enough that the 30 percent marker serves as a reliable proxy for the broader Windows 10 installed base. In November 2025, HP estimated that roughly 60 percent of its devices had already moved to Windows 11. The new 30 percent figure means the company has pushed another 10 percentage points of its base forward in six months, leaving a stubborn minority that resists easy remediation.

HP’s 30 Percent: What the Number Actually Means

Parkhill framed the remaining Windows 10 population as a future replacement opportunity, particularly for machines that can’t jump to Windows 11 because they lack a supported processor, TPM 2.0, or Secure Boot. That hardware gate is the central reason the migration has become a long-tail problem. A managed enterprise fleet can stage replacement cycles; consumers and small organizations, however, often keep a perfectly functional PC rather than buy a new one solely to change operating systems.

It’s important to unpack what “30 percent” does and doesn’t include. The metric captures HP systems still running Windows 10, but it doesn’t distinguish between devices that are actively managed, enrolled in Extended Security Updates (ESU), or simply sitting unpatched. Many home users may not even realize that the free ride ended last October. For them, the PC keeps working, browsers load, and Windows Update occasionally delivers a patch—but unless they’ve taken explicit steps to join the ESU program for consumers, those patches stopped being comprehensive security updates months ago.

How We Got Here: A Timeline of Windows 10’s Retirement

Microsoft announced Windows 10’s end-of-support date years in advance, but the transition has been bumpy. The original deadline of October 14, 2025, gave customers a clear runway, yet Windows 11’s hardware requirements—mandating an 8th-generation Intel Core or AMD Ryzen 2000 processor or newer, plus TPM 2.0 and Secure Boot—turned a simple software upgrade into a hardware decision for millions of machines that were otherwise perfectly capable.

By October 2025, Windows 10 version 22H2 received its final monthly security update. Microsoft stopped all non-security fixes, feature development, and standard technical support. The only lifeline was the Extended Security Updates program, which Microsoft structured as a paid annual subscription for organizations. Consumers were offered a path too, but it has shifted over time: Microsoft initially provided a free year of security updates for home users, then extended that grace period for a second year, according to Tom’s Hardware. Exact terms for consumer ESU enrollment remain somewhat opaque, often relying on Windows Update prompts rather than a straightforward purchase flow.

HP’s own data points illustrate the pace of migration:

  • November 2025: ~60% of HP installed base on Windows 11
  • May 2026: ~70% on Windows 11, 30% still on Windows 10

The trend is positive, but the last 30 percent are moving at roughly half the speed of the earlier cohort. If the current rate holds, it could be late 2027 before HP’s installed base approaches full Windows 10 obsolescence—right as the final ESU licensing windows begin to close.

Your PC Might Still Be on Windows 10 for Good Reason

If your machine is among the 30 percent, the most common culprit is a processor that’s not on Microsoft’s supported list. Windows 11’s CPU compatibility list has not changed meaningfully since launch. PCs with 7th-generation Intel Core chips or older, or first-generation AMD Ryzen chips, remain blocked from the standard upgrade path. Microsoft occasionally publishes a registry workaround that allows installation on unsupported hardware, but it comes with a warning that those systems won’t be entitled to Windows Update patches. For most people, that’s a non-starter.

Other roadblocks include:

  • TPM 2.0: Many desktops and older laptops either lack the module entirely or have it disabled in firmware.
  • Secure Boot: Required by Windows 11, but machines originally configured for legacy BIOS may need a full reinstallation to switch to UEFI.
  • Firmware or driver issues: Some enterprise line-of-business software or older peripherals don’t have Windows 11 drivers.

HP executives underscored that these hardware constraints are the primary reason the remaining Windows 10 base hasn’t shrunk faster. “It’s not that people love Windows 10 more than Windows 11—in many cases, their PC can’t run Windows 11 without replacing the entire box,” as the earnings call commentary suggested.

Staying Secure on Windows 10: Your Options Right Now

The path forward depends on whether you’re a home user, a small business without formal IT, or an IT administrator managing a fleet. The risk of staying on Windows 10 without active security updates is real: every month Microsoft releases patches for Windows 11 and ESU-enrolled Windows 10 devices, attackers reverse-engineer those fixes to identify vulnerabilities on unpatched systems. A Windows 10 PC without ESU is increasingly a soft target.

For Home Users

Check your eligibility for free security updates. If you see a Windows 10 PC still receiving cumulative updates in mid-2026, it’s likely enrolled in the consumer ESU program—but don’t assume it will continue forever. Microsoft’s official ESU page advises that the program is a paid offering, yet the company has extended free updates for consumers multiple times, as reported by Tom’s Hardware. Visit Settings > Update & Security > Windows Update and confirm that you are receiving updates labeled “Security Update” or “Cumulative Update for Windows 10 Version 22H2.” If you are, the system is patched for now.

Plan your exit strategy before the consumer ESU grace periods expire. Nobody knows if Microsoft will extend free updates a third year, but the official lifecycle policy states that Windows 10 ESU programs run through October 2028 at most. At some point before then, you’ll need to replace your PC, move to Windows 11 (if your hardware allows), or enroll in a paid ESU plan. A new Windows 11 laptop or desktop is the simplest path, but refurbished Windows 11-compatible machines can be a budget-friendly alternative.

Maintain defense-in-depth practices. Even with ESU, Windows 10 is an aging platform. Use a modern, supported browser, keep all applications updated, run antivirus, and be especially cautious with email attachments and downloads.

For IT Admins and Small Businesses

Inventory and classify every Windows 10 device. Know your exact count, hardware specs, and which machines can be upgraded to Windows 11 with a simple in-place upgrade versus those that need replacement. Pay special attention to systems running 22H2—that’s the only Windows 10 version eligible for ESU patches.

Verify ESU enrollment and licensing. Microsoft’s commercial ESU program requires each device to have an active license key. The keys are cumulative, meaning you need the current year’s key to continue receiving updates. Windows Update will still show “up to date” for unlicensed devices, but they won’t receive the monthly security rollups after the grace period. Use the Microsoft 365 admin center or volume licensing portal to confirm every device that must remain on Windows 10 is enrolled.

Prioritize replacements for out-of-support hardware. HP’s own data suggests its customers are treating the remaining Windows 10 fleet as a future refresh opportunity. If you have a fleet of devices that can’t meet Windows 11 requirements, set a budget and a timeline. Many organizations are aiming to complete their Windows 10 migration by mid-2028, before the final ESU year begins.

Consider Windows 365 or a virtual desktop. For users whose legacy software requires Windows 10, moving workloads to a cloud PC or VDI instance can buy time while you purchase new hardware. Microsoft has promoted this as a bridge strategy.

What Happens If You Do Nothing

The consequences vary, but the baseline is the slow erosion of security. Vulnerabilities discovered after October 2025 will never be fixed on a non-ESU Windows 10 device. Over months, the attack surface widens. Browsers and third-party apps may eventually drop support too, as vendors follow Microsoft’s lead in ending Windows 10 compatibility.

For businesses, regulatory compliance is another stick. Industries with data-protection mandates typically require that all systems receive security updates. Running an unsupported OS can put you in violation of HIPAA, GDPR, PCI-DSS, or other frameworks.

What to Watch Next

Microsoft has not signaled any willingness to relax Windows 11’s hardware requirements, even as the migration drags on. Pressure may build if economic headwinds make PC replacements harder to justify, but for now the company is holding the line. OEMs like HP, Dell, and Lenovo have a financial interest in drawing out the transition—each replacement PC represents new revenue—but they also face supply-chain and installer-capacity limits.

The most consequential unknown is the consumer ESU program’s end date. Microsoft originally positioned even consumer ESU as a paid, one-year option. The repeated free extensions reported by Tom’s Hardware suggest the company is reluctant to cut off home users as long as the installed base remains meaningful. If the 30 percent figure holds into 2027, expect more brinkmanship.

For the average user, the HP data point is a reminder that you are not alone if you’re still on Windows 10—but it’s also a signal that the clock is ticking. The longer you wait, the more expensive and disruptive the inevitable upgrade becomes. Whether you plan to enroll in ESU, buy a new PC, or take the Windows 11 plunge on existing hardware, now is the time to pick a lane.